Max PAX Explained

[EHM-1077 Emanuele]

Thank you fimfim, and welcome aboard.

A dynamic system like the one you propose
it's kind of interesting, because it would free
us from the need to collect a lot of real world
data.

On the other hand, any dynamic system will
have balancing problems. Think about having
a bunch of bottles half-filled with liquids
and connected by tubes to one another.
Then think about bringing the whole thing
on a ship in high seas. The liquids will flow
caothically from bottle to bottle without
too much logic, up to the point where big
bottles might be completely empty and
smaller bottles might be overflowing.

Out of the metaphore, we might end up
with big cities with no demand/supply and
small cities with an insane amount of
passengers flowing in and out!

Anyway, it's a very interesting and different
idea from the direction we were looking at
in the previous posts.

Maybe some kind of hybrid solution will
do. Something to think about.

Thanks for your input.

Ciao ciao!

Manu

[EHM-0962 Zhen Yi]

I had been thinking of something like that too but because of the problem i did not mention it........besides that could call for limiting the routes that can be flown to the pilots which is not very good........the most realistic solution that i can see would be to find out the current trend, which gives you the demand for that route, and then divided by the number of flights flown that day.......which creates a hybrid of the two systems, but essentially combines the problems facing both solutions........back to thinking again!

And oh about fimfim's suggestion again, what if the next day only 1 flight was made, doesn't that mean that all flights on the next day would be loaded with 100 passengers? and if like 7 flights were made on the third day, wouldn't that be 700 passengers carried total, far exceeding the demand? Therefore i think that the number of passengers onboard should not be dependent on the previous day's flights........

Instead how about leaving the passengers carried blank and calculate it based on the number of flights that day and fill in the value at the end of the day? But then in this way the pilot won't know how many passengers they've carried till the next day.......

[EHM-0641 Rico]

Wassup guys... I have been following ur conversation...

I'll make this very simple....

On the euroharmony website, there is this link called "PILOTS"....  ok..

When you click on that, magicly appears the link "FLEET"   ok...

by some weird circumstances, on the FLEET pages, all the EH planes in use are listed...even weirder, is that there a page for every on of this planes.... ok..

Now comes the good part.....

On each such pages, there a complete list of the planes specs.   ...ok ..

Now comes the realy good part...

In that same specs list, theres that little section that says : Capacity (PAX) ...

And there it is people... the max amount each plane can have... so if it says 25, you can put 25 or less....it's ur own decision....

want an example..??  

BOEING 747-400:
Planes In Fleet 16
Length 70.67 m
Wingspan 64.44 m
Height 19.41 m
Engines RR RB-211
Power 4x 266.9 kN
Cruise Speed 490 kts
Service Ceiling 45000 ft
Range 7135 nm
MTOW 385.5 t
Capacity (pax) 416


I hope I've Helped you guys out a bit ..
Have Fun Flying  :]

[EHM-0962 Zhen Yi]

uh.........i think we all know that!

We're just discussing ways to generate passenger numbers on board a plane in a dynamic and realistic way

Was just wondering, what's weird about displaying all the aircrafts on that page with a page for each and everyone of them?

[EHM-1367 Oscar]

Hello,
I think it would be too hard or even impossible to get real life frequently updated statistics of every route. Of course, if it's possible then it's the best. I think we are limited to the EuroHarmony world because of the statistics we get from the pireps.

Or - why not get real statistics for 2 weeks only plus certain holidays, and then loop it? So that the PAX would be determined from holiday or not/day of the week/time of the day and such. To that som deviation could be added so the numbers wouldn't repeat completely.

That wouldn't be 100% realistic as the traffic on a route may change, but it could be updated every 3 month or something , that update would also help summer/winter-differences (charter routes and such).


Thank you.

[EHM-1123 Dejan]

Originally posted by manu3d
What do you mean with vTour?

Manu

The Virtual one, I thought it was lost.. good that it isn't  
I was away for the week-end, sorry for late replies...

See new ideas about the topic here.
Could some min and max amount of pax be set, to stop the over(under)flow, maybe?
Cheers

[EHM-1077 Emanuele]

Fimfim, do you know where those two weeks
worth of statistics can be found?

Dejan, can you please rewrite your last
sentence in a slightly more understandable
and detailed way? Pleeeeeeease?

Ciao ciao!

Manu

[EHM-0654 Murray]

Originally posted by manu3d
Dejan, can you please rewrite your last
sentence in a slightly more understandable
and detailed way? Pleeeeeeease?

Manu, Dejan's final sentence makes perfect sense to me (but then, I am a little twisted...)

I think what Dejan is getting at is (and correct me if I'm wrong Dejan): Would it not be possible to set some minimum passenger values for the aircraft in the fleet (maximums are already listed, Dejan) and that way a weighted bell-curve could be applied (airlines prefer to have too many passengers for a flight...) to get a figure for souls on board.

[EHM-0962 Zhen Yi]

or how about this, take the trends that is in the continent itself (continential trends) and insert a multiplier for town to towns, city to city, city to town etc and derive the percentage of seats filled? and of course for long hual flights have intercontinential trends rather than route trends, but route trends can be thrown in for more prominent routes too........and of course festive seasons could be factored in as well but that could be covered in the continential trends already.......and of course last of all a random generator that generates numbers close to that derived from the previous workings...........think this would provide for the least work but yet the most realistic approximation

Anyone has a better idea?

[EHM-1123 Dejan]

Originally posted by manu3d
Dejan, can you please rewrite your last
sentence in a slightly more understandable
and detailed way? Pleeeeeeease?

Sorry for not being descriptive enough...

Originally posted by Murray CraneI think what Dejan is getting at is (and correct me if I'm wrong Dejan): Would it not be possible to set some minimum passenger values for the aircraft in the fleet (maximums are already listed, Dejan) and that way a weighted bell-curve could be applied (airlines prefer to have too many passengers for a flight...) to get a figure for souls on board.

Yep, that's what I meant...
Just a thought to divert from idea of taking the real world data.
Correct me if wrong..., but I think depending on those data, means constant update chasing, and it will require a lot more work and effort.
:|

[EHM-0654 Murray]

This is all sounding scarily like what (I believe) AirSource is trying to get at...

[EHM-0962 Zhen Yi]

AirSource?

[EHM-0654 Murray]

Originally posted by EHM-0962
AirSource?

http://www.air-source.us/

They brand themselves as "... a team of dedicated Virtual Pilots spanning the globe. Over 400 Airlines have contracts with Airsource. Every day, there are Pilots that call in sick, take vacation, go on strike, or simply cannot make it to the gate on time for their flight. AirSource is  here to keep scheduled Airline service uninterrupted."

[EHM-0962 Zhen Yi]

? i don't get it.........how does it sound like our discussion here?

[EHM-0654 Murray]

Originally posted by EHM-0962
? i don't get it.........how does it sound like our discussion here?

Their back-end software inserts passenger numbers for their website...

[EHM-1199 Philip]

Fim fims idea of based on previous flights sounds great but with a randomised function could create very unrealistic totals. If the function returned a slightly lower number than average then the number being used for future flights would also be lower resulting in a downward trend for that route. Ultimatally we could end up with a large plane and almost no passengers which would be highly unrealistic and against the grain of what any routine like this is supposed to achieve.

What are the industry averages for %pax. These must be available somewhere and if not could be obtained just by taking a poll of routes we have fly in real life and the number of empty seats. I would guess that the figure rarely drops much below about 80% and is probably usually between 95 and 100%. It would certainly follow a normal distribution curve so you would find say 95% of the flights are within the 95-100% capacity pax band. (These are my guesstimates and need testing.) In which case the solution could simply be a controlled band for a random generated number. 95% of the time then, the pax would generate in the band indicated and the rest of the time outside the band. The maths is fairly simple it's just finding the data to produce that normal distribution curve that might be more tricky.

[EHM-1367 Oscar]

Originally posted by Plymyphil
...I would guess that the figure rarely drops much below about 80% and is probably usually between 95 and 100%. It would certainly follow a normal distribution curve so you would find say 95% of the flights are within the 95-100% capacity pax band. (These are my guesstimates and need testing.) ...

For my own flying, I think I'll probably just make a simle program, giving me a random number within the range you described, I personally don't thing that the pax is so important to be exact numbers following the real life trend. It just seems too much work and too little to gain. But again, if it's possible to do it in an easy and elegant way, why not.

Thank you.

[EHM-1199 Philip]

Originally posted by fimfim
For my own flying, I think I'll probably just make a simle program, giving me a random number within the range you described, I personally don't thing that the pax is so important to be exact numbers following the real life trend. It just seems too much work and too little to gain. But again, if it's possible to do it in an easy and elegant way, why not.

Thank you.

In which case fimfim why not just let the PIREP do it for you. That's more or less what happens if you leave the pax blank on the PIREP. It does a calculation of I think between 75%-100% and fills in the blank.

[EHM-1367 Oscar]

I've done it so far. But that way I don't know anything about my dear passengers, I let them in, fly from A to B, and let them out. But after all, that's what air travel is all about..hm..  Maybe cargo is more my thing..

[EHM-1199 Philip]

Originally posted by fimfim
I've done it so far. But that way I don't know anything about my dear passengers, I let them in, fly from A to B, and let them out. But after all, that's what air travel is all about..hm..  Maybe cargo is more my thing..

We need some sort of conversation parsing software to generate chat as they board and maybe it could also create tickets with simulated addresses. Hey, one of us could check the simulated passports match the faces.
Better still, we could have a simulated drunk trying to board and then we could in a simulated way of course, kick his butt right off our aircraft and refuse to fly him ... oh ... the possibilities are endless.

[EHM-1367 Oscar]

...and a virtual little kiddie wanting to take a photo of the flightdeck every two seconds "what does this button do?"

(nothing wrong with taking pictures of flight decks)

[EHM-0962 Zhen Yi]

yeah i have to agree......if it's too complicated to make, then we better not make it.......

And oh for the average pax for real airlines, i believe they stand at about 75%......even an 80% would be considered to be very good unless of course it's a special occasion when many people wants to travel there........but then again we could simulate EuroHarmony to be much more successful that the rest!

[EHM-1459 Jonny]

Someone or I could just make a javascript file and within it have all the aircraft along with a max. and min. number for each aircraft. Then when you press a button with the airrcaft's name on it, it generates a random number.

[EHM-0962 Zhen Yi]

Isnt that a feature already in the online PIREP form?